$68K trend line rejection signals Bitcoin bear cycle far from finished
BTC price momentum stalls as attempts to recover crucial support territory fall short, with market analysts maintaining expectations for bear market duration similar to historical patterns.
Bitcoin (BTC) started surrendering earlier gains during Thursday's opening session on Wall Street as bullish momentum encountered fresh overhead resistance challenges.
Key points:
- Bitcoin struggles to recover previously held support territory as the rally toward $70,000 runs out of steam.
- Market participants maintain elevated caution regarding BTC price movements on both near-term and extended timeframes.
- Declaring the bear market conclusion appears "probably premature," according to analytical assessments.
BTC price rally loses steam beneath $70,000 threshold
Information from TradingView revealed $67,000 returning as a focal point as daily percentage losses on BTC/USD exceeded 1%.
The trading pair had ascended to a peak of $70,040 during the previous day as purchasing pressure mounted an offensive against two critical thresholds: the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) alongside the former 2021 all-time high level.
Price action eventually proved unable to maintain position above either level, and providing commentary, trader and analyst Rekt Capital indicated that the 200-week EMA was currently "acting as resistance."
"Ultimately, as long as Bitcoin remains below the 200-week EMA, history suggests price will favour additional downside," he communicated to X followers on the day.
Trading resource TheKingfisher in the meantime demonstrated that price action exhausted its upward momentum following the capture of a series of liquidity levels positioned below $69,000.
Additionally, trader Jelle — mirroring numerous other market observers — demonstrated no eagerness to declare a dependable trend reversal.
"Yesterday's $BTC rally pushed price straight into the previous cycle highs & the 12h trend, and then rejected. The trend remains clear - be cautious & take it slow," he summarized.
Declaring bear market conclusion "probably premature" based on historical data
Rekt Capital expressed comparable perspectives, contending that when measured against historical benchmarks, the current timing remained premature for Bitcoin to conclude its comparatively recent bear market phase.
"The shortest Bitcoin Bear Market lasted 365 days. Bitcoin is currently ~140 days into its current Bear Market," he added.
"Any talk of the Bear Market being over already is probably premature."
Trader Roman shared this assessment, drawing attention to typical bear market retracements of 80% observed during earlier cycles.
At its 15-month lows registered during the earlier portion of February, BTC/USD accomplished a maximum drawdown measuring approximately 53% when compared against its October 2025 all-time high of $126,200.
"One bounce and suddenly everyone is calling for the bottom on $BTC," Roman wrote on X.
"Don't be deceived. Every bear cycle has dropped nearly 80% from its peak. Not to mention the 1M and 1W have no signs of reversal. Patience."
