XRP poised for 'explosive price expansion' as three crucial metrics align
A declining MVRV ratio, elevated XRP Ledger network activity, and a bullish wedge formation indicate XRP could surge toward the $3.10 price level.
Despite XRP (XRP) experiencing approximately a 64% decline from its multi-year peak in July 2025, multiple technical and onchain metrics indicate the digital asset could be positioned for a "strong price rebound."
Key takeaways:
- The MVRV ratio for XRP has dropped to -47%, a threshold that has historically correlated with significant market recoveries and periods of accumulation.
- Surges in XRP Ledger transactions indicate increasing network usage and suggest a potential macro price bottom around $1.30-$1.50.
- A bullish falling wedge formation for XRP indicates a potential 134% breakout rally targeting $3.10.
XRP enters "extreme undervalued" territory based on MVRV ratio
The market value realized value (MVRV) ratio for XRP, calculated by dividing market capitalization by realized capitalization, has declined to levels that historically correspond with accumulation phases and market troughs.
According to the data, XRP's 30-day MVRV has reached -47%, marking its lowest point since December 2020.
This indicates that investor fear and frustration have "reached rare extremes that have historically preceded strong rebounds," according to a Tuesday post on X from onchain analytics provider Santiment, which further noted:
"Historically, MVRV's (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current level an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP."
Significantly negative MVRV values typically emerge when retail market participants have predominantly capitulated, establishing conditions where even modest positive catalysts have the potential to spark substantial rallies.
Although depressed MVRV readings by themselves don't ensure complete trend reversals, they "often signal that the majority of panic selling has already occurred and downside risk becomes more limited compared to potential upside," Santiment noted.
In addition, XRP's MVRV Z-score is currently positioned near zero, a threshold that has historically corresponded with accumulation phases and market bottoms, based on information from Glassnode.
The previous instance when XRP's MVRV Z-score declined to comparable levels in late 2024, it aligned with a macro market floor at $0.30 prior to a rally of 500% to a multi-year peak above $3. Previous gains stood at 215%, 94% and 1,050% in 2023, 2022 and 2021, respectively.
CryptoQuant analyst: XRP is "creating stable macro floor"
The XRP Ledger experienced a substantial spike in transaction volume during April, indicating that "deep ecosystem activity and accumulation are quietly building beneath the surface," according to CryptoQuant analyst TopNotchYJ in a Monday Quicktake note.
"Massive, vertical spikes in transaction counts serve as early network leading indicators, predating explosive price expansions," the analyst explained.
During November 2019, an increase in transaction count came before the 2021 rally from $0.15 to $1.79 (approximately 1,200%). A comparable pattern occurred in July 2024, with a gain of 600% to its ultimate cycle high of $3.17 in mid-2025 from $0.50.
XRP is presently consolidating within the critical $1.30–$1.50 accumulation range, and the substantial network activity spikes indicate that the price is "creating a stable macro floor," according to the analyst, who added:
"If history repeats and this current consolidation solidifies into a launchpad, a conservative 5x macro projection positions XRP's next major target area between $7.50 and $8.00."
According to a previous Cointelegraph report, additional important XRP Ledger indicators, including record whale wallet counts and monthly transaction volumes, indicate that the XRP/USD trading pair was positioned for a significant upward movement.
Falling wedge pattern breakout could propel XRP to $3.10
The price movement of XRP is unfolding within a falling wedge pattern on the weekly timeframe, a technical formation commonly linked with bullish trend reversals following extended downtrends.
The asset has been consolidating between two downward-sloping trendlines since July 2025, with the lower boundary now serving as critical support around the $1.30 psychological threshold.
Concurrently, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) has bounced back from oversold territory, indicating that selling pressure is diminishing. Previous instances of similar RSI conditions have been followed by strong price recoveries in XRP.
As an illustration, XRP surged as much as 660% between July and December 2024 after the RSI recovered from near oversold levels. The gains registered at 95% in mid-2022.
A validated breakout above the wedge's upper boundary at $1.50 could pave the way for an advance toward the measured objective of the current chart pattern at $3.1, representing approximately 134% above the current price level.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, market participants will need to push and maintain the XRP price above the $1.40-$1.60 resistance area on the daily timeframe to validate a long-term directional shift.