Trio of Polymarket accounts profit from well-timed US-Iran ceasefire wagers
A group of three Polymarket accounts collectively earned $484,575 from wagers on a US-Iran ceasefire agreement deadline of Tuesday, sparking fresh worries about potential insider trading activity.
A trio of freshly established wallets generated a total profit of $484,575 through Polymarket wagers predicting that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire agreement by Tuesday, marking another incident that has triggered suspicions of insider trading activity.
These wallets came into existence and received funding on Tuesday, showing zero previous onchain transaction history prior to placing their wagers on Polymarket's market titled "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7," according to blockchain data that Lookonchain disclosed on Wednesday.
Data from Polymarket indicates the earnings generated by these three wallet addresses stood at $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450 as of the current reporting time.
The affirmative wagers were executed when probabilities ranged from 2.9% to 10.3%.
A single Polymarket participant executed their initial transaction on the "US x Iran ceasefire by April 7" market at precisely 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, approximately eight and a half hours in advance of US President Donald Trump's announcement confirming a ceasefire agreement had been reached in a Truth Social post published at 10:32 pm UTC.
The remaining two participants executed their initial wagers at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday, respectively.
These wagers received their payouts following the United States and Iran's mutual agreement to implement a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, though both nations have maintained that additional military action remains a potential option.
Platforms for prediction markets have emerged as among the most rapidly expanding applications for cryptocurrency and are routinely exceeding $10 billion in trading volume on a monthly basis.
Nevertheless, legislators and regulatory bodies worldwide have placed prediction platforms under intense examination due to concerns regarding increasing insider trading activity and potential market manipulation.
Polymarket insider trading alleged in the US and Israel
During January, legislative representatives in the US put forward a bill designed to prohibit government officials from engaging in trades on prediction market platforms following an incident where one Polymarket participant earned more than $400,000 on a market concerning Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's potential capture by US forces.
This profitable wager generated suspicion regarding the possibility of insider knowledge being utilized.
During February, law enforcement authorities in Israel took into custody and formally charged two individuals for purportedly utilizing classified information to execute wagers connected to Israel launching strikes against Iran on Polymarket during June 2025.
Among those who were arrested was an individual serving as a member of Israel's military forces.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have put into place their own strategies to identify and prevent insider trading activities.
In February, Kalshi announced the establishment of an independent advisory committee and entered into a partnership with Solidus Labs, a crypto trading surveillance platform, "to detect, investigate, and address market abuse."